where will shopify stock be in 5 years

What Will Shopify Stock Price Be In 10 Years? (Shopify Stock Price Prediction) is shopify fourteen h

Curious Pejjy

Updated on Jan 12,2023

What Will Shopify Stock Price Be In 10 Years? (Shopify Stock Price Prediction)

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What Will Shopify Stock Price Be In 10 Years? (Shopify Stock Price Prediction)

is shopify fourteen hundred dollar stock,price a good buy right now like why,can't they just do a stock split i mean,fourteen hundred dollars per share is,pretty darn expensive i mean who can,afford one share of shopify just do a,damn stock split and get it over with,hey guys i'm curious peggy and i'm,curious i'm curious is shopify stock,price at 1400 per share is a good time,to start a position for the next five,ten years and onwards so as usual after,researching and putting a lot of hours,into this prediction i made a very easy,to read an understandable excel,spreadsheet and graph that predicts a,stock every year up until the year 2030.,and honestly this was one quite,difficult stock to predict so smash that,like button but you'll see why it got,difficult in the forecast in just a bit,now before we get into it there are a,few disclaimers that you should know am,i a financial advisor no can you rely on,this video to make the choice to buy,shopify stock or not i would say yes,because all information stats and facts,are from solid data so as usual nothing,came right off my ass can you guys use,this video as research i would say yes,you can do i own any shopify shares at,the moment i don't and honestly i'm not,really planning to in the foreseeable,future for the next three years as you,guys will see in the forecast why but,the main reason is because there's,another company that's kind of following,the same footsteps of shopify and it has,a much more growth opportunity i'll,mention that company at the end of the,video and yes i am heavily invested in,that one should you smash the like,button you guys should definitely smash,and destroy the like button and if you,subscribe will there be more videos like,this oh hell yeah man i love these types,of videos i love talking about the stock,market i've been doing it for about,eight to nine years and i just love the,stock market so any company that you,guys want me to do a forecast on just,comment down below and i'll be more than,happy to look into it and heck it could,probably even be the next video shopify,was one of the best stocks to buy back,in 2020 when the pandemic started,because shopify is mainly an e-commerce,platform or dropshipping platform,however you guys want to look at it and,e-commerce in general skyrocketed due to,the lockdowns and shot downs in 2020,putting shopify in probably the best,position ever shooting up over 300 since,their lows in 2020 to date which is,honestly,pretty freaking nice that means if you,want to put a thousand dollars in 2020,around now you would have had about like,four thousand dollars like three extra,money that's just insane now shopify is,a huge company right now sitting almost,at a 200 billion valuation obviously,they would have other companies that,would obviously help them so let's,briefly go over them because as an,investor i like to know what else i'm,investing in when i buy shopify these,are the list of companies that they,currently own and starting off with,handshake handshake is a business to,business order entry solution ticktail,is a social shopping website for,shoppers to discover emerging designers,all around the world return magic a,return solution overload as we all know,by now sources products from suppliers,automatically like aliexpress i'm sure,you guys heard about that one a lot tiny,heart an app studio that creates,products ultimate a software development,company kits a virtual marketing,assistant jet cooper a user experience,agency and select start pretty much,creates mobile games and apps and many,more companies but these are the main,ones but quite honestly all these,companies that they own really do help,the shopify website and we'll see some,examples in a bit so it's really safe to,say that shopify is a monster when it,comes to the e-commerce world i mean,just like what toby says the internet is,the world's largest city and shopify is,building its commerce infrastructure i,mean if that doesn't tell you what the,future says about shopify i really don't,know what will,oh wait the forecast will but before we,dive into the forecast did you guys know,that tesla budweiser wikipedia their,online shop not their actual website and,many other well-known companies use,shopify to sell their products online i,mean that's crazy awesome you can buy a,model s 3 x y or sexy on a shopify based,platform which goes to show you that the,shopify platform is extremely easy to,make a website wow what this tells me,that if tesla and all these other big,companies that are using shopify based,platform to make their website and,shopify is a very easy and reliable,place to make a website so if you guys,want to make a website i guess shopify,is one good place to do it what i'm,trying to say is that if tesla is doing,it that you can too now let's talk about,the future of shopify and what their,plans are shopify now has about 11 of,the entire global market share but they,have about 30 in the us alone but the,future of shopify and e-commerce is,quite clear there has been a major shift,in the world in 2020 from shopping in,person or face to face all the way to,buying and selling online the trend was,going down that anyway but the pandemic,has accelerated the e-commerce industry,forward by about 10 years according to,shopify about 46 of consumers are not,comfortable shopping in stores anymore,and they prefer online although this is,all due to the cover 19 pandemic i,strongly do believe that once things go,back to normal normal like we accept,this virus like the other virus the flu,and all the other ones consumers will,feel more comfortable than to go back in,store face-to-face shopping but,it won't be the same and sadly it'll,never be the same the future of shopify,is pretty much guaranteed at this point,but does that mean we can go all in,let's find out by the way guys if you,guys want to read the full article of,the shopify report check the link in the,description so back in 2020 the peak,price was about,1226 and the current price right now is,14.26 total revenue back in 2020 just,hit almost 3 billion with the net income,being 320 million shares outstanding 123,million with the eps being 2.6 and with,a forward pe or or a pe in general was,about,472 which just is absolutely insane,making the stock price hit a peak of 12,26 with the market cap being 150 billion,which is just crazy i mean a pe of 470,is i mean it's like it's like almost,like tesla here i mean it's just forward,thinking is crazy now finding the,prediction from 2021 to 2030 was a bit,tricky because in 2021 when we look at,the recent quarters not only has shopify,been crushing it but just look at it it,looks it doesn't look real the fact that,net income is excelling revenue in,quarter one and in quarter two it's,almost the same i mean like it's not,that far off from being leveled with,revenue in quarter two this doesn't make,any sense after doing a little bit of,research it seems like they sold a,little bit of some assets or some,security of good that's why earnings go,up it doesn't make sense for revenue to,be a lot less than earnings it just,doesn't work like that hence given the,stock price making the p e ratio a,little bit of an illusion right now the,pe is sitting at 73 but when we look at,the past when when the stock was going,crazy it reached an all-time high of,almost 650 pe and now it's down because,of the earnings of the q1 and q2 of,2021. right now the price is not where,it needs to be the p e ratio is going to,double when things go back to normal now,when i looked at simply wall street for,the prediction because their prediction,are mainly accurate and they do take a,lot of things into consideration but,from 2021 we can see there's a big lump,and that's because due to the security,of goods they sold or the assets that,they sold so it's obviously not right so,i went back to q1 and q2 of 2021 and i,got the adjusted earnings and this is,what i got it came to 538.7,million which that sounds about right,being the first two quarters from,selling based off their revenue now what,i did take into consideration from,simply wall street was their revenue,because that seemed to be correct so i,input assemblies wall street revenue,from 2021 to 2023 and for the net income,of 2021 i added another 500 billion to,what i had for q1 to q2 as an estimate,and i got over a billion in net income,which is actually pretty good now i,suspect for the next few years after,that up until 2024 shopify is going to,be,giving 50 year over year because shopify,is just on a roll right now and is going,to be for quite some time putting that,50 percent on to 2022 all the way to,2024 we get these numbers let me know 50,year over year for the next three years,is too much or too little i really do,believe shopify can deliver that much in,the next few years because online,shopping people are now used to it those,who are skeptical are now more used to,it now and they do feel more comfortable,so i do think sales are gonna continue,to be high for the next few years until,levels off a little bit simply wall,street is saying by 2023 by end of 2023,that they should have about 900 million,in earnings but i don't know i think,that's just being very very very,conservative i think they can do a whole,lot more so comment down below let me,know what you guys think about that now,when it comes down to the revenue from,2024 and onwards we can see that year,over year from 2021 to 2022 about 60,increase and 34 then 38. so what i did,was that i took a conservative approach,and i said 30 from 2024 all the way to,2030 and this is what we got close to,almost 55 billion in total revenue in,2030 which i think,is quite reasonable given the fact that,e-commerce will continue to grow,heavily up until then when it comes to,the earnings what i did was is that from,2025 and onward instead of doing 50 rate,return every year i did 30 because,competition is gonna get higher it's,going to get more harder and e-commerce,will eventually level off slowly so i,said 30,all the way to 2030 from 2025 and we get,this almost 17 billion in net income in,2030 which is just absolutely insane let,me know if you guys agree with that,trust me guys this was quite difficult,to do i may not be right but it's a,prediction and it could go either way,now the shared understanding is very,important when it comes down to,predicting the stock price based on the,valuation on the net income and revenue,and based on the chart here we can see a,lot of shares being sold to the public,and that makes sense because a lot of,insiders are selling because if you look,at the stock from like five years ago,till now it's just games man i mean if i,was an insider i'd probably sell half my,shares and just you know get retired or,something because that's a whole lot of,money so it definitely makes sense that,there's a lot of shares being sold,within the company and more shares are,available to supply not to mention guys,there's only 130 million shares,available that's not a lot of shares for,a company that's why the price is so,high that's why they should do stock,splits five for one ten for one twenty,for one whatever man,it'll bring the price down it'll be much,more affordable for everybody,but anyways what i did was that i took,these numbers and i put it into an excel,sheet because i wanted to see how much,it was on a quarterly basis and then on,a yearly basis and on a quarterly basis,it was about a two percent increase just,a little over two percent increase,quarter over quarter in shares,outstanding that means every quarter,they sell about two percent shares to,the public which is actually quite a lot,of shares but we're doing this on a,yearly basis and based on the yearly,basis here it's about almost nine,percent which is just absolutely insane,that's a lot of shares being sold to the,public i mean you can just fix that by,doing a stock split but hey man that's,just my opinion so what i did here was,that i took an average of eight percent,and i plugged it into the formula we get,about almost,266 outstanding shares by 2030 if they,don't do any stock split up until then,the eps follows that as well giving it,almost a 64 eps by 2030 which is,absolutely insane and if the price ends,up being,126 dollars back in 2030 the pe will be,19 which i personally believe,shopify will never be in the 19 pes not,even in the 30s not even in the 50s,you'll see why in just a second but if,this happens in 2030 it's just going to,be a very no-brainer stock to buy,no-brainer now that we have the,prediction ready we can go ahead and,figure out the pe the correct pe that,can give us a stock price all the way to,2030. and this part was pretty darn,tricky up until mid 2020 there was no pe,ratio because they weren't making any,money but on quarter 3 of 2020 the pe,skyrocketed for the first time all the,way to 650 which is just absolutely,insane and when we look at quarter three,of 2020 they made a profit for the first,time ever and it was almost 30 profit,which is absolutely juicy and naturally,pe is calculated by dividing the market,share by the eps which they made a,profit for the first time giving it a,650 pe which is absolutely insane i mean,tesla had a thousand or 1200 pe at one,point so,these growth stocks are just crazy and,i'm not even surprised at this point but,now the pe is all the way down in the,70s but again it's manipulated not,manipulated but it's it's an illusion,because of the security of goods and,assets that they sold in q1 and q2 of,2021. but when we go ahead and adjust an,income it comes close to almost three to,four hundred pe which is like pretty,much what happened in 2020. that's the,correct pe,but i'm gonna be conservative here and,be more realistic and say from 2021 all,the way to 2030 i don't think it's going,to be at 300 for a very long time not,even 250 heck not even in the 400s,because it's going to keep they're going,to keep growing and making a lot of,earnings i strongly believe that 180 is,a good average to be at 180 pe and,obviously over time this number will go,lower and lower when they make more,earnings but at the moment i think 180,seems to be fair as a pe for shopify i,mean people are buying when when the pe,was 650 then 400 and now they're still,buying so i mean like i think 180 is a,good,um pe from now from 2021 all the way to,2030. so let's plug that in and see what,we get we can see that once we plug that,in 180 we can see that the stock price,in 2021 will be,1407 which honestly that's where we at,that's where we are right now so it's,that pretty darn accurate and in 2022,the stock price will be about 1955 which,when we look at yahoo finance it's,saying one year target price is going to,be 1972 which is honestly,seems to be kind of act like we're on,the right path here again it's all based,on the 180 pe it could go higher it,could go lower 2023 is going to be,almost 2 700 and 2024 is going to be,37.80 which is just crazy and then 2025,is going to be 4 500 per share and 5500,in the year of 2026 hitting a market cap,of 1 trillion if the pe is 180 at that,point which i don't think it will be but,1 trillion around 2026,i mean it sounds pretty nice and insane,2027 is going to be 6600 2020 is going,to be almost 8 000 per share 2029 is,going to be 9 500 per share and then 20,30 almost 11,and 500 per share with a market cap of 3,trillion wow honestly this looks a bit,realistic to me but again,let's see what the market says mainly,let's see what their earnings say,because that's what it's all based on,here's the chart to see how it looks,like it is going to the moon the,compound effect is absolutely insane to,the moon we go but as usual guys this is,only a prediction maybe this might not,happen at all maybe in five years they,go bankrupt,highly likely they will not go bankrupt,but you never know what's going to,happen you know 2020 was a you know an,interesting year where everyone thought,it's going to be a good year and then,the whole world went upside down and,some of the companies that had great,forecasts for 2020 are now bankrupt you,know you got to take everything into,consideration or maybe the other company,that i'm heavily invested in just a bit,will overtake them you never know but,yes take this as a grain of salt guys,this is only a prediction now i don't,have too much of a concern with shopify,when it comes to the future because the,future is literally them when it comes,down to online shopping i'm not even,bothered about their competitors too,much because even though there's a lot,of them shopify is on an upside they,have a lot of opportunities and for the,next 5-10 years it's nothing but games,so you may be asking if you don't have,any problem with them why don't you own,any shares well there's two reasons one,the stock price is hella expensive being,at fourteen hundred dollars per share,and their pe as mentioned before it's a,little bit illusioned it's not correct,so i fear that as soon as the p is,adjusted the stock price may go down for,a little while and if anything that's,when i will be interested to enter if,they could also do a five for one split,or seven for one split i would be more,interested than even more and two,there's another company that follows,shopify's footsteps and there's a lot,more growth opportunity in that company,don't get me wrong shopify is definitely,in their growth period and they have a,lot ways to go but this other company,just has a lot more opportunity and a,lot more growth ahead because it's early,stages you know the company that i'm,talking about is lightspeed pos or,ticker symbol lspd these guys are a pos,and e-commerce company that's fast,accelerating and soon to be the next,shopify in stock-wise not company wise,these guys are two different businesses,but in the same industry i'll talk more,about light speed in another video,because it needs its own but yes i do,heavily own a lot of shares of light,speed but shopify has a lot of room for,growth as the world is an acceleration,mode with online and e-commerce shopify,will greatly benefit so go all in on,shopify you could your money is,definitely safe with shopify in the long,term heck it's better than a savings,account anything is better than a,savings account but as usual more,research is always needed so do your dd,invest smart and invest safe i hope you,guys enjoyed this video if you guys are,this far into this video that means you,guys have enjoyed so smash that like,button it'll really help me out and,it'll push this video to people that,need it but if you guys enjoyed this,stock price prediction check out this,10-year facebook stock price prediction,with this google stock price prediction,as well as apple one you guys won't be,disappointed you guys will have a great,idea about it and don't forget to,subscribe and i shall see you guys in,the next video see ya

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